## Banking

## Insurance

## Retail

## Public Sector

## Automotive

### Baseline assumptions

- **Lines of COBOL**: 800B
- **Developers available (global)**: 100K
- **AI productivity multiplier**: 5×

### Traditional SDLC — Input

- **Lines per dev per day**: 150

### Traditional SDLC — Total elapsed calendar time (with AI)

- **Total**: 844 years
- **Without AI**: 1,212 years

#### Traditional SDLC

| Phase                                   | Time (Years) |
|-----------------------------------------|--------------|
| Discovery & archaeology                 | 13.5         |
| Requirements & BA analysis              | 101.3        |
| Architecture & design                   | 67.5         |
| Code migration (AI-assisted)            | 33.8         |
| Unit & integration testing               | 127.0        |
| Functional testing                      | 84.4         |
| Parallel / shadow running               | 84.4         |
| BA / UAT / business testing             | 67.5         |
| Regulatory & compliance                 | 33.8         |
| Deployment & cutover                   | 25.3         |
| Post-migration stabilisation            | 16.9         |

### Scenarios

- **Conservative**: 1,964 years
- **Pessimistic**: 800B lines · 150 lpd · 50K devs · 2× AI
- **Base case**: 844 years
- **Most likely**: 800B lines · 150 lpd · 100K devs · 5× AI
- **Optimistic**: 391 years
- **Best-case**: 800B lines · 150 lpd · 200K devs · 15× AI

### MO Process — Input

- **Lines per dev per day**: 1,200

### MO Process — Total elapsed calendar time (with AI)

- **Total**: 47 years

#### MO Process

| Phase                                   | Time (Years) |
|-----------------------------------------|--------------|
| Analyze source code                     | 2.7          |
| Capture production data                 | 22.8         |
| Generate a modern replica candidate     | 18.3         |
| Verify behavioural equivalence          | 16.4         |
| Verify performance and integration equivalence | 9.1         |
| Regulatory & compliance                 | 3.7          |
| Integrate into production               | 9.1          |
| Project management overhead             | 9.1          |

### Scenarios

- **Conservative**: 127 years
- **Pessimistic**: 800B lines · 1,200 lpd · 50K devs · 2× AI
- **Base case**: 47 years
- **Most likely**: 800B lines · 1,200 lpd · 100K devs · 5× AI
- **Optimistic**: 20 years
- **Best-case**: 800B lines · 1,200 lpd · 200K devs · 15× AI

### Traditional SDLC model inspired by [Vikas Pujar's LinkedIn post](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/vikaspujar_mainframehumor-share-7441857961037168640-mZg7/)

### MO Process by Mechanical Orchard

- 800B LOC estimate from Rocket Software survey