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Baseline assumptions
Lines of COBOL 800B
Developers available (global) 100K
AI productivity multiplier 5×
Traditional SDLC — Input
Lines per dev per day 150
Traditional SDLC — Total elapsed calendar time (with AI)
844years
Without AI: 1,212 years
Traditional SDLC
Discovery & archaeology 13.5 yrs
Dependency mapping, business logic extraction, documentation
Requirements & BA analysis 101.3 yrs
BA workshops, business rule capture, stakeholder sign-off
Architecture & design 67.5 yrs
Target Java architecture, data model, API design, cloud infra
Code migration (AI-assisted) 33.8 yrs
COBOL → Java translation, refactoring, code review
Unit & integration testing 127.0 yrs
Automated test generation, CI/CD pipeline, coverage validation
Functional testing 84.4 yrs
End-to-end functional validation against COBOL behavior
Parallel / shadow running 84.4 yrs
Dual-run old + new, output reconciliation, discrepancy resolution
BA / UAT / business testing 67.5 yrs
Business acceptance, edge case validation, sign-off cycles
Regulatory & compliance 33.8 yrs
Audit trails, SOX/PCI/Basel compliance validation, regulator approval
Deployment & cutover 25.3 yrs
Phased rollout, fallback planning, prod monitoring
Post-migration stabilisation 16.9 yrs
Hypercare, incident response, performance tuning
Scenarios
Conservative
1,964
years
Pessimistic
800B lines · 150 lpd · 50K devs · 2× AI
Base case
844
years
Most likely
800B lines · 150 lpd · 100K devs · 5× AI
Optimistic
391
years
Best-case
800B lines · 150 lpd · 200K devs · 15× AI
MO Process — Input
Lines per dev per day 1,200
MO Process — Total elapsed calendar time (with AI)
47years
MO Process
Analyze source code 2.7 yrs
Capture production data 22.8 yrs
Generate a modern replica candidate 18.3 yrs
Verify behavioural equivalence 16.4 yrs
Verify performance and integration equivalence 9.1 yrs
Regulatory & compliance 3.7 yrs
Integrate into production 9.1 yrs
Project management overhead 9.1 yrs
Scenarios
Conservative
127
years
Pessimistic
800B lines · 1,200 lpd · 50K devs · 2× AI
Base case
47
years
Most likely
800B lines · 1,200 lpd · 100K devs · 5× AI
Optimistic
20
years
Best-case
800B lines · 1,200 lpd · 200K devs · 15× AI
Traditional SDLC model inspired by Vikas Pujar's LinkedIn post
MO Process by Mechanical Orchard
800B LOC estimate from Rocket Software survey
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